Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 31.070645 34.669659 38.807404 43.988272 50.408886 58.258058 68.837525
2025-07-06 27.166806 32.042239 38.222936 46.930188 59.440412 77.839828 109.589811
2025-07-13 23.482113 28.694338 35.743056 46.542765 63.959467 94.118405 161.703553
2025-07-20 21.128102 26.546348 34.265785 46.971468 69.763888 116.485943 262.392017
2025-07-27 19.387775 24.906842 33.111442 47.468832 75.866841 145.146265 483.756045
2025-08-03 17.908713 23.402523 31.845501 47.374413 80.798183 177.378712 1066.217481
2025-08-10 16.594646 21.965169 30.430339 46.621891 84.001049 210.355430 3493.890743
2025-08-17 15.651656 20.980505 29.594886 46.747260 89.451107 264.082624 NaN
2025-08-24 14.776611 20.006466 28.633268 46.385689 93.550655 325.961851 NaN
2025-08-31 13.973202 19.070328 27.616119 45.685135 96.442084 396.349788 NaN
2025-09-07 13.294876 18.279018 26.763068 45.169238 99.792973 495.821363 NaN
2025-09-14 12.725364 17.621021 26.078130 44.898880 103.995610 651.778579 NaN
2025-09-21 12.094539 16.824829 25.074995 43.746485 104.675877 791.413331 NaN
2025-09-28 11.937992 16.816775 25.553148 46.281625 122.089864 2045.093566 NaN
2025-10-05 11.467008 16.234272 24.861877 45.734189 125.951679 3735.943831 NaN
2025-10-12 11.124806 15.852979 24.529806 46.073171 134.783459 19757.014252 NaN
2025-10-19 10.820131 15.517092 24.255022 46.519184 145.066378 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 10.490531 15.116454 23.811485 46.411630 152.427840 NaN NaN
2025-11-02 10.133206 14.646620 23.187064 45.676720 155.409242 NaN NaN
2025-11-09 9.871041 14.334690 22.867618 45.794666 164.933667 NaN NaN
2025-11-16 9.590253 13.974335 22.417707 45.443597 171.013123 NaN NaN
2025-11-23 9.303243 13.589247 21.888070 44.765462 174.115268 NaN NaN
2025-11-30 9.047409 13.250317 21.435457 44.266135 178.669690 NaN NaN